Chaos theory
Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 12:16 pmOn Monday, Tarryk made a post to his journal about his crappy Monday. This was preceeded by posts about his crappy weekend. During which he says:
and
Well I had a theory that I wanted to share with him on that. So I sent him this PM. But last night he tells me that this doesn't really belong in a PM. It belongs out here for ya'll to pick apart (ok, "pick apart" came from me, but I figure that's what's going to happen
). So anyway, this is the response I sent him, for your discussion:
I'll tell you what you were thinking and why you were jinxed. You weren't looking at all theories of chaos. You were looking at those which would bump chaos against Newton's cradle and get an opposite reaction. That's not the way to look at it. A better foil for chaos is usually Occam's Razor. The simple is the perfect balance to the complex.
In the scheme of things one bad occurance usually breeds another. One error usually breeds a second. Chaos theory says that a seemingly random occurance can have an effect on the outcome which more or less dictates the next occurance in the chain and so on. Sometimes a branch in the chain which started off crappy can bump against a positive factor and its path can turn out good. But the greater likelyhood, the simpler solution, is that it's going to either keep going from bad to worse, or keep going without intensifying. Either way it remains crappy.
The closer you are to the onset of the crap, the less likely it is to hit a good path.
Now, of course, the good part of all this is that the larger the web becomes the more factors which can have a positive influence on the outcome come into play and things can, ultimately, turn around.
*bows*
By all theories of chaos, things HAVE to get better after today. Next journal entry will be a positive one.
and
What the hell was I thinking, jinxing myself like that? "Things can only get better"?!?!?! That's practically a CUE for things to get worse!
Well I had a theory that I wanted to share with him on that. So I sent him this PM. But last night he tells me that this doesn't really belong in a PM. It belongs out here for ya'll to pick apart (ok, "pick apart" came from me, but I figure that's what's going to happen
). So anyway, this is the response I sent him, for your discussion:
I'll tell you what you were thinking and why you were jinxed. You weren't looking at all theories of chaos. You were looking at those which would bump chaos against Newton's cradle and get an opposite reaction. That's not the way to look at it. A better foil for chaos is usually Occam's Razor. The simple is the perfect balance to the complex.
In the scheme of things one bad occurance usually breeds another. One error usually breeds a second. Chaos theory says that a seemingly random occurance can have an effect on the outcome which more or less dictates the next occurance in the chain and so on. Sometimes a branch in the chain which started off crappy can bump against a positive factor and its path can turn out good. But the greater likelyhood, the simpler solution, is that it's going to either keep going from bad to worse, or keep going without intensifying. Either way it remains crappy.
The closer you are to the onset of the crap, the less likely it is to hit a good path.
Now, of course, the good part of all this is that the larger the web becomes the more factors which can have a positive influence on the outcome come into play and things can, ultimately, turn around.
*bows*
